【禁聞】郎咸平指中共破產 專家:非危言聳聽
2011-11-07 06:54:07

【新唐人2011年11月7日訊】香港中文大學教授郎咸平上個月在瀋陽舉行一場閉門演講,用數據證明中共政府已經陷入經濟危機,瀕臨破產。有學者說郎咸平的話毫不稀奇,很多專家學者都有同感。

香港中文大學教授郎咸平10月22號在瀋陽演講,原本和出席者約定不准錄音或在微博上發表,但還是被流傳了出來。郎咸平在演講中指出,大陸官方公布的9.1%的經濟增長率和6.2通脹率都是假數據,大陸當局的經濟實際上已經破產。

郎咸平:「9.1是假的,通脹率6.2也是假的,起碼16。好了就算這兩個數據9%的GDP增長,6%的通貨膨脹。你曉不曉得,GDP增長怎麼算的各位?9減掉6你懂不懂啊。實際增長率按照我們黨的說法不到3%......如果通脹是16%呢?GDP增長是多少?-7各位。就這麼嚴重。」

郎咸平說,目前中共所有的政策,就是在掩蓋病入膏肓的經濟。他以經濟上的採購經理指數説明,中國早在7月已經進入經濟蕭條。

郎咸平:「製造業,經理人採購指數相繼公布,這個數字在50以上表示經濟正常增長,50以下代表進入蕭條。中美歐三國我現在告訴你,全世界第一個走入蕭條低於50的是誰?是中國,7月份開始。領先全世界探底,各位聽過這個消息嗎?沒聽過,為甚麼呢?不准報導。」

現在中國股市低靡,從四月底3000多點跌到10月2313點最低點,但其他的市場如樓市、汽車、奢侈品、古董、藝術品等確實火紅的很,這種冰火兩重天的怪象,只有中國是這樣,原因就是經濟支柱的製造業出現了危機。

郎咸平:「根據《經濟觀察報》的實地調研結果顯示,江浙地區服裝行業開工率不到三分之一,塑膠工業50%,橡膠工業60%,大豆榨濾行業不到30%。我自己的研究報告顯示,我們自己團隊做的報告顯示,海寧皮革城,皮革加工工廠目前停工60%。」

他還舉出,中國電廠總裝機容量9.16億千瓦,但只是用40%的產能,而截至6月20號,中國各個港口積壓的鐵礦石,高達9,890萬噸,已經超過了金融海嘯時期的7,098萬噸。這些數據在說明現實中國經濟已經開始蕭條。

郎咸平指出,中國70%的GDP其實是靠基礎設施的建設,而這些實際上是沒有經濟效益的。他擧例說,在前蘇聯解體之前,70%的GDP靠軍事工程來支撐,現在,中國的情況很像當時的蘇聯,只要經濟支柱製造業垮了,沒有實際效益的「鋼筋水泥」基建充場面的經濟數據就再也撐不下去。

郎咸平這場4個多小時的錄音在youtube上5天,已經吸引了將近八萬的點擊率。許多網友都如夢驚醒。也有許多網友擔心郎咸平講真話的後果。

美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田表示,郎咸平的「大陸破產論」不是危言聳聽,很多專家和學者早就在談論中國經濟的弔詭和危機。

謝田表示:「這對於我們海外許多研究中國經濟的人來說,一點都不奇怪。事實上我們在過去2年中一直在談論這個問題。」

謝田說,中國大部分民眾的收入40-50%要用到吃飯和日常消費上,如果日用品都漲價,從實際購買力這個角度來算的話,扣除通貨膨脹因素,中國的經濟是下降。但是很多中國人還被蒙在鼓裏,是因為中國人從國內看不到真實的數據,只活在中共的謊言裏。

謝田:「因為中共在經濟領域一貫的造假,從上到下的造假,這是連中共的副總理自己都承認的,像中共的副總理他說,他在遼寧省的時候,他是省長,他都不相信省裡面報導出來的經濟數據,他是自己去看硬性的數據,比方說,鐵路交通運輸、發電量這些東西來估計。」

謝田說,中共各級官員「數字出官、官出數字」,這都是由來已久的現象。而一個國家治理成這個樣子,非常可悲。

新唐人記者吳惟、李若琳綜合報導。


Lang Xianping: China』s Economic Depression Has Begun

On October 22, Lang Xianping, an economics professor
at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, gave a private talk in Shenyang City in Liaoning Province.
He cited statistics showing why the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
is trapped in an economic crisis and is at brink of bankruptcy.
Some scholars say that Lang』s conclusion is not surprising at all,
for they themselves hold the same the view.

Lang Xianping』s speech, which was widely circulated online,
pointed out that
the CCP』s official published growth rate of 9.1% and
its inflation rate of 6.2%, are false.
Instead he says, China as a nation, is bankrupt.

Lang Xianping: "The 9.1% figure is false.The inflation rate of
6.2% is also false. Inflation has reached at least 16%!
Do you know how to calculate the gross domestic product
(GDP) figure? Nine minus six.
The actual growth rate, according to the CCP』s data,
should be less than 3%.
What if the inflation rate was 16%?
What』s the GDP growth rate? Minus seven percent. The situation is this serious.”

Professor Lang said that all of the CCP』s current policies are
covering up the deep, murky reality of China』s economy.
He cited the Purchasing Managers Index to explain that
back to early July, China』s economy entered a recession.

Lang Xianping: “The Purchasing Managers Index,
which was just released, showed a reading above 50.
This indicates normal economic growth, while below 50
means the country is entering into a recession.
Now among China, the U.S., and Europe, let me tell you,
the first country that has gone into recession is China.
It started in July. But has anyone reported the news?
No. Why? No one is allowed to report it.”

Now, China's stock market fell from 3,000 points in April,
to 2,313 points in October.
But other markets such as property, cars, luxury goods,
antiques, and art, among others, are really booming.
The co-existence of such a bleak winter and boiling summer
can only take place in China.
The basic reason is that China』s manufacturing Industry crisis
has just begun.

Lang Xianping: "Field research conducted by
The Economic Observer, a weekly Chinese newspaper,
shows that the production rate of the apparel industry
in Jiangsu Prov. and Zhejiang Prov., is less than 33%.
The plastic industry is 50%, the rubber industry is 60%,
the soybeans extraction industry is less than 30%.
My own survey shows that at present,
60% of all Leather-processing plants have shut down in Haining, China."

Professor Lang also cited that although the total capacity of
China』s power plants is 916 million kilowatts, the utilization rate is only 40%.
By June 20, the volume of iron ore piled up in China』s
various ports has reached 98.9 million tons,
far more than the 7,098 tons imported
during the period of financial crisis of last few years.
This data shows that in reality, in China,
an economic depression has begun.

Lang pointed out that 70% of China's GDP came from
infrastructure construction, which, in reality, has not brought any economic benefits to the country.
For example, before the former Soviet Union collapsed,
70% of its GDP relied on military engineering projects.
The current situation in China is very similar to that of
former Soviet Union, at that time.
Once China』s manufacturing industry pillar collapses,
the country』s seemingly impressive infrastructure construction, won』t last longer.

Within five days of the online posting of Professor Lang』s
over- 4-hour speech recording, nearly 80,000 hits were racked up.
Many netizens have awakened from their dreams.
Others expressed concern over the consequences of Lang telling the truth.

Xie Tian, a professor at the Aiken Business School,
at University of South Carolina,
said that Lang Xianping』s theory of China』s bankruptcy,
is not alarmist in nature.
Many experts and scholars have talked about China's
economic paradox and crisis.

Xie Tian: "For us overseas researchers of China』s economy,
this is not surprising news at all.
In fact, we』ve been talking about this over the past two years.”

Xie says that most Chinese people spend 40-50% of
their income on eating and daily necessities.
When the price of daily necessities rises, the actual purchasing
power adjusted for inflation, shows that China's economy is declining.
However, many Chinese people are still kept in the dark,
for they cannot obtain real data from the CCP reports.
They are, in fact, living in the darkness of the CCP's lies.

Xie Tian: "In the economic field, the CCP has always
been making up lies, from top to bottom.
Even the CCP』s vice-premier admitted that when he was
governor of Liaoning Province, he did not believe the CCP』s reported economic data.
Instead, he used concrete statistics such as rail transportation
volume and power generation figures, and the like, to determine the true state of the economy.”

Xie Tian commented that there now exists a long-standing
phenomenon with CCP officials at all levels, namely,
“Figures determine an official』s position
and an official reports figures." A country under such governance is really sad.

NTD reporters Wu Wei and Li Ruilin